Ominous trend spells a hard landing for economy: Lakshman Achuthan
Investors may want to brace for a hard landing. According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, the recent bank failures reinforce a recession is imminent and there is a chart reflecting it. “We’re seeing lots of symptoms [of a significant downturn] when you have crises,” the institute’s co-founder Lakshman Achuthan told CNBC’s ” Fast Money ” on Wednesday. Achuthan highlighted a special weekly leading index sent to clients. It goes through the third week of March, which coincides with the latest bank turmoil. “On the left-hand side of the chart, you see the index coming down. It’s a forward-looking index,” said Achuthan. “That decline you see across the chart is a recessionary decline. It’s pronounced. It’s pervasive. It’s persistent.” Achuthan’s institute, also known as ECRI, considers itself a leading authority on economic cycles. Its mission is to uncover cyclical risks and opportunities before they’re widely recognized on Wall Street. ECRI’s weekly leading index, which is based on a combination of government economic data, soft surveys and market prices, shows a firming in the beginning of this year. That’s when soft landing chatter grew louder. But it ultimately didn’t hold. “It was a flash in the pan,” said Achuthan. Despite his warning, there appears to be optimism on the Street. The major averages rallied on Wednesday , with each of the three indexes gaining at least 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average , S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are all positive this month. In particular, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is up more than 4% in March. This strength has a shelf life, according to Achuthan. He predicts there will be pain ahead. “The market is an imperfect leading indicator,” Achuthan said. “It gets ahead of itself on times.” Disclaimer
